A Turkey Shortage Is Threatening Thanksgiving in America

We’re just a few weeks out from the Thanksgiving holiday, making now the perfect time to order your turkey. When you go to order that bird this year, however, you may run into a few challenges, including higher prices — if you’re able to find a turkey at all.

In October, the American Farm Bureau Federation (Farm Bureau), an industry trade group, reported a potential turkey shortage due to more than 600,000 turkeys being infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).  

“HPAI has had a major impact on the turkey industry, affecting about 18.7 million turkeys and accounting for 10% of all birds affected by the virus since 2022. This includes 2.2 million turkeys affected so far in 2025,” the Farm Bureau explained.

It noted that while HPAI detections slowed over the summer months, they’re on the rise again since the start of fall waterfowl migration, with 15 total detections in poultry flocks in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin affecting approximately 3.75 million birds. “Turkeys accounted for 606,600, or about 17%, of the birds affected this month,” the Farm Bureau added. “With much of the migration season still ahead, the industry faces the likelihood of additional HPAI cases in the coming weeks.” 

But that’s not all. Turkeys are also facing Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV), another highly contagious viral upper respiratory disease that’s less lethal but can cause a reduction in egg production. The Farm Bureau noted that the USDA’s latest Turkeys Raised report, released on September 26, estimated that 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, down 3% from 2024 and down 36% from a peak of about 303 million in 1996. “This marks the lowest estimate in 40 years when 185 million turkeys were raised in 1985, and will lead to higher prices for consumers.”

The average composite wholesale price for a frozen whole turkey, the USDA estimated, is hovering around an average of $1.32 per pound — up four cents per pound from last month and up 38 cents per pound from the 2024 price, meaning wholesale turkey prices are up about 40%. 

“The U.S. turkey industry is in the perfect storm due to disease threats and reduced demand. Many turkey farmers are in a dilemma whether to continue farming turkeys or convert to chicken production,” Paul Kelly, managing director of KellyBronze Turkey, shares with Food & Wine. He notes that because turkeys are particularly susceptible to HPAI, farmers have become more reluctant to raise them, further exacerbating the turkey shortage. “Because chicken has become so cheap, turkey has found it hard to compete on price, and demand has softened, which is another reason for fewer turkeys on farms.”

And Kelly isn’t speaking in hyperbole about demand, either. The Farm Bureau cited the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which projected in September that 4.49 billion pounds of turkey will be consumed or exported in 2025, a decrease of 610 million pounds from 2015 levels. And Thanksgiving accounts for a whopping 25% of all turkey consumption for the entire year, making the upcoming holiday a make-or-break day. 

For those hoping to still snag a bird at a great price, Heidi Diestel, a fourth-generation Turkey Farmer at Diestel Family Ranch, says it’s key to “know your farmer.” 

“Many small and mid-sized farms sell turkeys directly to consumers online — buying from them helps support local agriculture and ensures you’ll have a bird for your holiday table,” Diestel says. If you prefer to shop at grocery stores, however, Diestel warns that you should plan ahead. “Take advantage of pre-order or ‘reserve your holiday turkey’ programs to secure your bird early and avoid last-minute shortages.” 

And if you’re not worried about your Thanksgiving meal but do want to help turkey farmers, Kelly says it’s key to change your thinking about turkey in general. “My own opinion is that turkey is such a versatile meat and so healthy it needs to promote itself as competing with premium proteins like fish and veal and not cheap chicken. It is better than that.”