Conference championship games are played in rarefied (and sometimes thin) air. The stakes are obviously higher, individual plays mean more, and the game script can veer in highly unpredictable ways that can decide things pretty quickly.
For the four teams left in the 2024 season as we turn our attention to the NFC and AFC Championship games, it’s also about maximizing the efforts of the most important players on both sides of the ball. Some key players are key players because of position, some because of talent, and some because of specific scenarios that may require them to play the games of their lives if their teams are to meet their goals of a Super Bowl appearance.
Given the importance of these X-Factors, we’ve expanded the discussion to include one player from each team on both offense and defense. Here’s one defensive X-Factor for each of the four teams that will face off on Sunday for the honor of participating in Super Bowl LIX.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, at 3:00 p.m. EST
Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Nolan Smith
When the Eagles selected Georgia edge-rusher Nolan Smith with the 31st overall pick in the 2023 draft, it was a bit of a calculated risk. Not just because there were questions about the 6’2, 238-pound Smith’s ability to hold up to the rigors of the NFL at his size, but also because he missed several games in his last season at Georgia with a torn pectoral muscle. However, Smith’s status as basically a coach in the Bulldogs’ second straight National Championship season, and the great scouting combine he had, allayed some of those fears.
Smith was a reserve in Philly’s loaded EDGE rotation in his rookie season, totaling two sacks and nine total pressures in 95 pass-rushing snaps. And while he was light with production in the first four games of the 2024 season (no sacks and three total pressures), the light started to come on in Vic Fangio’s first season as the team’s defensive coordinator. From Week 11 through the Divisional playoffs, Smith has led the team in sacks with five, and he ranks third behind Milton Williams and Jalen Carter in total pressures with 26. Not to mention the fact that in two games against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, Smith was able to take care of business with two sacks and several other impressive pressures.
“He’s done a great job working, and he’s constantly improved,” Fangio said this week of Smith’s development. “The more you play, the more you practice, and he’s getting more snaps now, too, since BG went down. Gets more practice plays, game plays. You get better. That’s the only way you get better is to practice and play. He was improving in those first four weeks, too. Like you’ve made note, it’s come to fruition here since.”
Smith still has all that speed and athleticism, and he’s learned to drop the hammer physically at the NFL level. Now, there are no worries.
Washington Commanders: LB Frankie Luvu
Luvu was one of my favorite defensive players to watch in the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Carolina Panthers, because there were very few things he couldn’t do well – from off-ball run and coverage stops to legitimate edge rushes. The Commanders were just as positive about Luvu’s potential, as they signed him to a three-year, $31 million contract this offseason. Luvu has done everything possible to live up to it – and more. This season, he’s amassed eight sacks, 38 total pressures, 73 tackles, 45 stops, and he’s excelled everywhere from the edge to the box to the slot. The Commanders have an outstanding linebacker duo in Luvu and Bobby Wagner, but it’s Luvu who allows the defense to be as versatile as it is.
In two games against the Eagles this season, Luvu has been a guided missile all over the place. Two sacks, two tackles for loss, an interception, and tackles, pressures, and stops from everywhere.
“This is my first going run for it, for the playoffs,” Luvu said Tuesday. “And I’m just trying to keep my emotions here, keep it neutral, and just I know all the guys are the same way.”
Frankie Luvu with even more motivation? That could be a scary thought for any opponent.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, at 6:30 p.m. EST
Kansas City Chiefs: LB Drue Tranquill
Most of the time, players are X-Factors in games because of their positive plays and memorable exploits. In the case of Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill, the story goes a different way. In the Buffalo Bills’ 30-21 Week 11 win over the Chiefs, Tranquill – who is normally a very good player and a key cog in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense – had a game he would likely rather forget. Buffalo ran the ball 31 times for 104 yards and three touchdowns.
It was a nightmare for Tranquill. He missed tackles on each of James Cook’s two touchdown runs, and he was out of position on Josh Allen’s 26-yard scramble touchdown that salted the game away with 2:27 left in the fourth quarter.
Drue Tranquill is a really good linebacker, but he’ll probably want to redeem himself in the AFC Championship game after what happened to him in Week 11 against the Bills. pic.twitter.com/28v7wVw5yd
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 21, 2025
Overall, Tranquill has enjoyed a good season, with three sacks, 18 total pressures, 61 solo tackles, 30 stops, and generally solid coverage. But if Tranquill doesn’t square up in those situations against Buffalo’s run game this time around – and make no mistake, Buffalo’s run game will be a very big deal – that could be a serious impediment to Kansas City’s run at a three-peat.
Buffalo Bills: Every safety not named Taylor Rapp
For years, when the Bills put their rosters together, they could count on one thing: The NFL’s best safety duo in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. But as is the case with everything in the NFL, things change. In the 2024 season, Buffalo’s safety responsibilities have been covered by Damar Hamlin (whose own story is incredible), 2024 second-round pick Cole Bishop, veteran Cam Lewis, and Taylor Rapp, the former Los Angeles Rams defender who signed a backup deal with the Bills in 2023, and did enough to merit a three-year, $10,625 million contract this offseason.
With the Friday news that Rapp will be out of the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs due to the hip injury he suffered in the Bills’ divisional round win over the Ravens, that recent stability is thrown into anarchy. Rapp has been off the field for 301 snaps this season, and his excellence has shown up both in his presence and in his absence. The Bills allowed a Defensive EPA Per Play of +0.07 with Rapp off the field, and -0.02 when he was out there. There are always other factors in on/off splits, but there’s little doubt that Rapp has been the team’s best safety this season.
Now, it’s on the Other Guys – Bishop, Hamlin, and Lewis – to pick up the slack against Patrick Mahomes. No big deal, right?
Lewis is more of a box safety, but he can line up in the deep third when the Bills go two-high. Hamlin is primarily a deep safety, and he’s been better in coverage than some may think. And Bishop, who did not play in the Week 11 games between these two teams, can lime up just about everywhere, as was the case when he excelled at Utah.
One thing we do know is that against two-deep coverage this season, Mahomes has completed 118 of 177 passes for 1,232 yards, 661 air yards, three touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.5. And when Mahomes faced two-deep coverage against the Bills, he completed nine of 14 passes for 71 yards, 39 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 47.0.
So, however the Bills get to two-deep in the rematch, it’ll be up to everyone else to make it work. Which could ultimately prove the difference between the Josh Allen-era Bills finally getting to the Super Bowl, or not.
