Americans Are Already Holiday Shopping. Will They Find the Deals They Hope For?

Americans aren’t expected to slash their holiday budgets this year. But they may spend more time hunting for bargains—and find smaller ones than they hoped.

Consumers are expected to approach the year-end shopping season with the same thrifty ethos they’ve adopted for much of 2025 as they look to deal with tariff-fueled price increases, analysts told Investopedia. Keen-to-save shoppers have already started surveying deals well ahead of “Black Friday,” surveys show, but many are holding off on buying.

New National Retail Federation research shows what others have already spotted: Americans plan to shop resale markets, hunt for deals and cut back on some purchases. On average, Americans plan to spend about 1.3% less on gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items this November and December than a year earlier, the NRF said.

“It’s certainly going to be a weirder holiday season, at least form a consumer and brand perspective,” said Andrew Waber, who studies U.S. transactions on Amazon for PMG, a marketing and digital services company. “Purchase behavior may be a little different than what you expect.”

Many households have less disposable income, Oxford Economics said, adding that “unusually tight lending standards” may limit how much younger and lower-income consumers can rely on their credit cards. Any pullback among these consumers will seem small compared to the growth in spending among wealthy consumers, Oxford said.

Parents envision dropping an average of $30 more on gifts this November and December than a year earlier, the NRF said; overall, adults plan to spend about $628, down $13 year-over-year.

Total spending is likely to grow, analysts say: Wells Fargo forecasts a 3.5% to 4% year-over-year increase in retail spending, exclusive of auto, gas, restaurant and bar bills. That would be the slowest growth rate in seven years, Wells Fargo said, and shy of historical norms.

Consumers have been thinking about gifts for weeks, with half purchasing a present before October, according to a Bank of America survey. Many want to spread out spending and reduce last-minute stress, with most expecting to finish shopping in December, the NRF said.

Retailers and brands are aware that people are taking a more deliberate approach, and are, generally, responding by offering promotions for longer periods, Waber said. But the discounts may be less significant as businesses balance tariffs and other expenses. The average discount during Amazon’s (AMZN) sale earlier this month was about 24%, compared to 28% in 2024, Waber said.

“Price competitiveness is very important,” he said. “If I can’t give the deepest discount, but I can give a pretty good discount for a much longer period of time, I’m more likely to like catch consumers when they’re ready to buy.”