In a poll conducted before the Democratic convention, Kamala Harris had already opened up a 50%-43% lead over Donald Trump.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll was released today, but the data was collected before the Democratic convention, and it found:
In the overall sample, Harris leads Trump 50 to 43 among likely voters, with 7 percent saying that they will support someone else in November’s election (with undecided voters included, that lead is 47 to 40). Both Trump and Harris have the support of 95 percent of their partisans, and Harris leads Trump 38 to 33 among independents who do not lean towards either party. Similarly, Harris has a strong lead among self-identified liberals (87 to 10), progressives (93 to 5) and moderates (62 to 30). Trump leads among conservatives (76 to 19), and MAGA voters (95 to 4).
The FDU poll did something very unique. The poll measured the impact of race and gender on the election, and what they found was important:
Trump are tied (47 to 48). When the list of issues mentions the sex of the candidates, Harris pulls ahead, 52 to 42. And when the race of the candidates is mentioned, Harris holds a 14-point lead, 53 to 39, a 15-point shift from the baseline condition.
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The movement in the race priming condition is largely due to changes in support among non-white voters. Fifty-five percent of non-white voters in the unprimed condition say that they’ll support Harris, with 39 percent supporting Trump. But in the race primed condition, Trump’s support among non-white voters drops by 10 points to 29 percent, while Harris’s support rises by 10, from 55 to 65 percent. All told, mentioning the race of the candidates moves Harris’s lead among non-white voters from 16 points (55 to 39) to 36 points (65 to 29).
This size of the effect is supplemented by a shift away from Trump among white voters in the race primed condition. In the unprimed condition, Trump leads Harris among white voters by 11 points, 53 to 42. In the race primed condition, the two are tied, with Harris marginally ahead among white voters, 47 to 44.
When Trump and the Republicans talk about the election in terms of race and gender, the support for Trump plummets.
The data suggests that instead of minimizing race and gender, Democrats should be embracing it. While it is important not to overstate the meaning of one poll, voters are showing signs of not wanting a white male president.
The poll suggests that Trump’s strategy against Harris is completely wrong. The personal attacks are costing him support, and Trump’s refusal to not use the same strategy that he used against Hillary Clinton is backfiring on him.
Trump has no strength in policy, and it is a good rule of thumb that when a campaign starts being told that they need to talk about policy, it is a sure sign that their messaging isn’t working and they are losing.
Again, it is just one poll, but it suggests that America has changed since Trump ran in 2016. A wave could be building that isn’t fueled by policy or personality but by a desire for change and diversity.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
