The U.S. military is most likely to suffer a defeat at the hands of China if it tried to intervene in a war over Taiwan, a top secret Pentagon assessment report has found.
Pentagon war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have shown that Beijing could cripple U.S. fighter squadrons, major warships, and even satellite networks before they deploy effectively, the highly classified document, “Overmatch Brief”, warned.
The document, prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, shows America’s reliance on advanced and expensive weapons makes it vulnerable to China’s rapidly manufactured cheaper ones, reported the New York Times.
The report warned that China has developed the capacity to neutralise critical American assets at the outset of a conflict.
It comes days after Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, warned U.S. to “handle the Taiwan question with the utmost prudence”.
The report, recently delivered to senior White House officials, said China’s rapidly maturing arsenal – particularly its long-range precision missiles, expanding fleet of advanced aircraft, large surface vessels, and its counter-space capabilities – now places U.S. forces at a significant operational disadvantage in the region.
China has amassed an arsenal of about 600 hypersonic weapons, which “can travel at five times the speed of sound and are difficult to intercept”, the report said. The Office of Net Assessment is a state agency that serves as the Pentagon’s internal think tank.
When a senior Biden national security official received the “Overmatch” brief in 2021, he turned “pale” after realising that “every trick we had up our sleeve, the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy”, a official who was present there said, according to the NYT.
China considers Taiwan as an inseparable part of its insisting that the island of 23 million people eventully be unified with the mainland – by force if necessary.
Taiwan, however, considers itself a sovereign, independent country, saying that any change in Taiwan’s status must be decided democratically by its 23 million people, not imposed by China.
While China has given no deadline on the invasion of Taiwan, assessment and intelligence by the western powers claim that China could launch efforts to take Taiwan by around 2027 – a timeline that matches with Xi Jinping’s military modernisation goals.
The report notes that China could destroy many U.S. advanced weapons, such as aircraft carriers before they even reach Taiwan, using missiles amassed over the past 20 years.
In wargames simulating battlefield scenarios, even the latest U.S. Navy carrier is often not able to sustain an attack, the assessment said.
The report cited the example of America’s latest U.S.S Gerald R. Ford, built at a cost of $13 billion and deployed in 2022. Despite the new technologies, including more advanced nuclear reactors, the carrier would be unable to survive a Chinese attack.
The Ford, which would be effective if matched against weaker powers like Venezuela, is “fatally vulnerable to new forms of attack”, it said.
The report also drew from real-world examples as the war in Ukraine against Russia continues to test Western weaponry on the battlefield and the adversaries of America are learning of the shortcomings and strengths.
“The war in Ukraine demonstrated how vulnerable tanks have become,” it said.
The assessment also warned that the U.S. no longer has the industrial capacity to produce weapons and munitions at the speed and scale required for a prolonged conflict with a major power.
Washington is falling behind in rapidly developing advanced weapons compared to Beijing and Moscow as it “over-relies on expensive and vulnerable weapons”, it said.
Previously, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, said in the Pentagon’s war games against China, “we lose every time” and predicted that China’s hypersonic missiles could easily destroy aircraft carriers within minutes.
The U.S. is vulnerable because the missile stockpiles have already been strained by support for Israel and Ukraine, it said.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has previously cautioned that the U.S. would run out of key munitions quickly in a war with China.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that China now far surpasses the U.S. in nearly every category of cruise and ballistic missiles, even though both countries retain around 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Washington is also reported to have expended about a quarter of its high-altitude missile interceptors while defending Israel during Iran’s 12-day ballistic missile barrage in June.
The Independent has reached out to the Pentagon and the U.S. State Department for a comment.
