New poll shows Donald Trump has hemorrhaged support from key voting group

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump in the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll for the first time following her strong debate performance last week.

But there is still everything to play for with just 49 days until the election.

Harris now holds a one-point lead over the former president in the DailyMail.com poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted after the candidates went head-to-head in Pennsylvania. 

Harris is the choice of 43 percent of voters – up two points since the last poll on August 13 – while Trump is favored by 42 percent, which is down two points.

The shift appears to be driven by huge changes among Hispanic voters. 

J.L. Partners polled 1000 likely voters using landlines, mobile phones, online panels, and in-app techniques from September 11 to 16. The results carry a  3.1 percent margin of error

Trump has lost 17 points of support, wiping out his advantage among what is a crucial group in multiple key battleground states. 

His support among black voters has also halved, from 13 percent to 6 percent.

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said the debate had helped Harris with three important groups since DailyMail.com’s August poll.

‘First, Independents—she now leads Trump among them by four points,’ he said. 

‘Second, 50 to 64-year-olds, where she has reduced a 16-point deficit to just a two point gap. 

‘Third, Hispanic voters, who have moved sharply away from Trump in the last few weeks. It is hard to say exactly why, but with the most noticed political news story of the last month being the debate, that has to be something to do with it.’ 

Hispanics in particular were a key part of the coalition that propelled Biden to victory four years ago.

And Harris likely will need their votes in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona to win in November. 

She has enjoyed a fundraising and polling bonanza since entering the race unexpectedly in July.

Trump was beating Harris with Hispanic voters in August, but his support has plunged since

DailyMail.com’s panel of independent voters declared Vice President Kamala Harris to have performed best on the night, and saw her as more presidential than Donald Trump

Viewers thought Trump won on the key issues of the economy and the border

However, there were signs that the honeymoon was ending as her poll boost started to flatten. 

Against that backdrop she arrived at the ABC News debate with a point to prove and a plan to get under Trump’s skin. It appeared to work.

She wasted no time in mocking his rallies, triggering the former president into  repeating a wild internet rumor that illegal immigrants were killing and eating pets.

At times he raised his voice and he appeared to be distracted from his own plan of turning the spotlight on Harris. 

J.L. Partners conducted a separate online poll to analyze voter attitudes. Respondents who indicated their view of Harris had become more positive were asked to explain the reason.

‘The more I listen to her and what took place in the debate makes me more positive about her, said a 75-year-old male Republican who said he voted Trump in 2020 but planned to vote for Harris in November.

Several other respondents also specifically cited the debate.

‘I thought she was a bad candidate at first but I’ve started to realize that she is the only option,’ said a 22-year-old male candidate from Texas, who voted for Trump in 2020. 

Since the debate, Trump and his supporters have defended the claims that Haitians are eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio, saying that it has highlighted how communities are struggling to cope with new arrivals.

Trump has also been forced to defend his close association with Laura Loomer, a rightwing conspiracy theorist, who traveled with him to 9/11 memorials last week despite once claiming that the terrorist attacks had been an inside job.

But the campaign took another twist Sunday, knocking those headlines off the front pages.

Police arrested Ryan Routh, 58, after a gunman was spotted at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf course in an apparent assassination attempt.

Johnson said Harris could be pleased with her good showing among Hispanics, Independents and 50 to 64-year-old voters but that Trump had the advantage of an Electoral College system that meant she would need to dominate the national vote in order to take the White House.

‘Of the groups to be making headway in, those three are amongst the best: They account for many voters, and how they land will determine the election,’ he said.

‘But we shouldn’t get carried away. This remains an incredibly close election. 

‘Harris still relies on younger voters for most of her support—a group that does not always turn out to vote on the day. And even on these numbers, Trump would win the Electoral College vote and be headed to the White House.’