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Wednesday, December 4, 2024

UK weather: Hurricane Kirk is coming to bash Britain with heavy rain and disruptive winds next week as Met Office map shows where will suffer worst


Hurricane Kirk is coming to bash Britain with heavy rain and disruptive winds next week.

The category 4 storm has strengthened in the Atlantic Ocean and while it is not directly heading towards Britain, it will trigger a spell of unsettled weather and a drop in temperatures across parts of the country next week.

The Met Office has published a map showing where people will suffer the most with the storm ‘posing a threat of bringing disruptive rain and wind’ from midweek.

Parts of England and Wales look to have the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds during Wednesday and Thursday. 

Chris Bulmer, a Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, said: ‘Kirk over the North Atlantic will lose its status as a hurricane early next week before being swept towards northwest Europe. 

UK weather: Hurricane Kirk is coming to bash Britain with heavy rain and disruptive winds next week as Met Office map shows where will suffer worst

The Met Office has issued a warning as Hurricane Kirk heads towards the UK

The flooded A1101 in Welney on the Norfolk/Cambridgeshire border this morning as more rain is forecast for next week

The flooded A1101 in Welney on the Norfolk/Cambridgeshire border this morning as more rain is forecast for next week

Parts of England and Wales look to have the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds during Wednesday and Thursday. The A1101 and fields around Welney on the Cambridgeshire and Norfolk border are still flooded this morning

Parts of England and Wales look to have the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds during Wednesday and Thursday. The A1101 and fields around Welney on the Cambridgeshire and Norfolk border are still flooded this morning

The Met Office has published a map showing where people will suffer the most with the storm 'posing a threat of bringing disruptive rain and wind' from midweek

The Met Office has published a map showing where people will suffer the most with the storm ‘posing a threat of bringing disruptive rain and wind’ from midweek

‘The resulting low pressure system will still have the potential to bring disruptive rain and winds to some areas, including parts of the UK, from the middle of next week.

‘There remains much detail to work out on the exact track and timing of the system. Across the UK, parts of England and Wales look to have the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong winds during Wednesday and Thursday. 

What is a hurricane?

Hurricanes are tropical features and require sea temperatures much higher than those around the UK, even in the summer. Hence, hurricanes cannot form at our latitudes.

However, we are sometimes affected by deep depressions that were originally hurricanes which have moved to higher latitudes. Such depressions are classified as ‘ex-hurricanes’ or ‘ex-tropical cyclones’ since they have changed their prime energy source from the warm ocean surface to the clash of warm tropical and cold polar air.

By the time Kirk potentially reaches waters near the UK, it will have lost its power and be known as ‘ex-hurricane Kirk’.

If the weather system reaches the criteria for naming it a storm due to its possible impacts, it would be known as Storm Kirk.

Source: Met Office 

‘However, a more southward track of this system, which is equally plausible at this stage, would see the most disruptive conditions impact France. 

‘The need for warnings will be kept under review over the coming days, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast.’

As soon as the temperatures drop below 26.5C, hurricanes lose their ‘source of fuel’ and die off quickly as a result.

But if the storm encounters a jet stream, which Kirk is expected to do, it could then transform into an extra tropical cyclone which could cause some ‘issues’ to the UK.

The upcoming week could also see the first snow falling in the UK.

A Met Office long-range forecast says the white stuff may hit parts of the Scottish mountains late next week, but says it is unlikely that enough will fall for a snowman to be built. 

For Scotland and Northern Ireland these showers are more likely to turn cold, the Met Office says, and this wintery weather is likely to work its way south by next weekend.

However, whilst it may feel chilly in these areas, snow is not predicted to fall. But further spells of wind and rain are likely to arrive.

Meanwhile there’s another fine day for England and much of Wales on Saturday. 

However, unsettled conditions already affecting Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland will gradually push to all areas as low pressure moves in from the west. 

LEICESTER YESTERDAY: Three cars have become stranded in a road after the recent heavy rain

LEICESTER YESTERDAY: Three cars have become stranded in a road after the recent heavy rain

LEICESTER YESTERDAY: There is no respite from the bad weather as the Met Office has now warned of highly 'unsettled' conditions over the weekend and into next week

LEICESTER YESTERDAY: There is no respite from the bad weather as the Met Office has now warned of highly ‘unsettled’ conditions over the weekend and into next week

LONDON: Commuters attempt to shelter as they cross London Bridge in the rain earlier this week

LONDON: Commuters attempt to shelter as they cross London Bridge in the rain earlier this week 

LIVERPOOL: A drenched man in a raincoat walks past a flooded road sign on Tuesday

LIVERPOOL: A drenched man in a raincoat walks past a flooded road sign on Tuesday 

Cloud and rain, which could be heavy at times, will affect Northern Ireland and southwestern parts of England and Wales by Saturday evening, with rain continuing to spread eastwards overnight, easing as it does so. 

Northern Lights possibly visible over the next few nights

There’s a potential for some aurora visibility for some, primarily in the north of the UK, over the next few nights.

Met Office Space Weather Manager Krista Hammond said: ‘There is the potential for a coronal mass ejection to arrive at Earth late on Friday or early on Saturday, which could lead to visible aurora for Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England.

‘In addition, we recently observed an X9 solar flare – the largest of this solar cycle so far. The accompanying coronal mass ejection is likely to arrive at Earth overnight on Saturday into Sunday, meaning that enhanced auroral visibility is possible further south across central England and similar latitudes, though cloud and rain could hamper viewing potential for some.’

Sunday sees another band of rain, which could be heavy at times, spreading eastwards, bringing a blustery day with sunny spells and heavy showers. It will be feeling quite mild for the time of year though, with highest temperatures likely to be around 18°C. 

As we move into the new working week, Monday and Tuesday bring a mixture of sunshine and showers, the heaviest and most frequent in the west, with conditions drier in the east. Unsettled conditions likely to persist for the remainder of the week with the potential for disruptive rain and wind. 

Meanwhile many Brits faced days of flash flooding earlier this week, with the torrential rain leading the Environment Agency to issue 64 red flood warnings and 157 amber flood alerts across England. 

The Met Office’s Deputy Chief Meteorologist Tony Wisson said: ‘Hurricane Kirk is currently in the tropical Atlantic. It is expected to move north into cooler waters, where it will lose a lot of its strength, but maintain its identity as a moderately deep low pressure system. 

‘There are complex processes involved when a hurricane undergoes what is known as ‘extra tropical transition’. 

‘This results in a lot of variability in the forecast, which means that predictability is low at longer lead times. Therefore, confidence in any one scenario is very low.

‘There are a few apparent scenarios. One scenario suggests that this low pressure system could come close to, or even cross, the UK by Wednesday or Thursday next week.

‘This would lead to heavy rain and strong winds in places. Another scenario is for the low pressure system to stay further west in the mid-Atlantic, keeping much of the associated rain and wind away from the UK.

‘Other possibilities are also apparent, but we need to wait until we have more information, to determine which scenario will win out.’

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