Sometimes, history turns not on huge, epochal forces but on momentary twists of fate.
Had Donald Trump not shifted his head by a few degrees the instant before the first shot was fired at a rally on July 13, he would have been killed — and events in the US could have taken a very different turn.
So if the worst had happened, and Trump had tragically become the fifth US President to be assassinated, what might have followed?
Here, Freddy Gray dares to consider the possibility — and comes to some deeply troubling conclusions.
Insane flight of fancy or all too terrifyingly likely? You decide . . .
Donald Trump is surrounded by Secret Service officers in the aftermath of the assassination attempt
Thomas Matthew Crooks, the gunman who opened fire on former president Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania
Secret Service agents on high alert after the attempt on Mr Trump’s life
At 8.24pm, Eastern Time, the emergency team at Butler Memorial Hospital, Pennsylvania, confirmed the news. Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, was dead.
In New York, CNN’s anchor Anderson Cooper stared at the autocue.
‘Well, it’s official,’ he said. ‘Donald Trump becomes the fifth American president to have been assassinated, the first since John F. Kennedy in 1963, and the first to be killed having . . . I’m sorry, I didn’t . . .’ He choked up, live on air, as he held back tears for the man he’d hated so passionately.
An hour later, President Joe Biden addressed the nation from the White House: ‘Political violence is the opposite of what we stand for,’ he said. ‘In this terrible moment, we must seek to unite, not divide.’ For once, he didn’t stutter or stumble.
Biden telephoned Trump’s widow, Melania, to offer condolences. She refused to take the call. Her office released its own short statement. ‘They’ve killed my husband,’ it said, echoing the words of Jackie Kennedy 60 years before. ‘He loved his country.’
World leaders offered support. ‘We stand with America at this time,’ said Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. ‘We stand with America at all times.’
King Charles confirmed he would go to the funeral with Queen Camilla and Prince William. Prince Harry and Meghan did not comment. From the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin issued a statement: ‘This tragedy shows the evil of domestic terrorism.’
From Beijing, Xi Jinping sent ‘sincere sympathies’. Hungary’s Viktor Orban called Trump ‘a lion of Western civilisation’.
Back at the Butler Farm Showground in Pennsylvania, where the shooting happened, the crowds grew steadily through the night. Locals lit candles and said prayers. ‘Tonight we grieve,’ said Vince Fusca, a Trump fan. ‘Tomorrow we take our country back.’
Others were less patient. In Pittsburgh, less than an hour’s drive away, a mob of Trump supporters quickly encircled a downtown hotel containing First Lady Jill Biden, who had been campaigning in the city.
Windows were smashed and fights broke out as the crowd bayed for blood. A military helicopter whisked the president’s wife to safety from the roof. ‘They always look after their own,’ said one protester on the street below.
In many US cities that night, residents left their homes to participate in peaceful vigils for Trump. At 3am, however, in Portland, Oregon, a gang of far-Left ‘Antifa’ activists started a big street party. ‘Bang bang!’ they sang exultantly. ‘Bye Bye!’ Jubilation soon turned to rioting. Young men in masks began looting.
The police did not respond. ‘Our resources are overstretched,’ said Mayor Ted Wheeler. ‘We’re also dealing with multiple far-Right threats.’
In nearby Washington County, at 6.25am, a Trump fan with an AR-15 assault rifle opened fire on the local Democratic Party office. Two security officers were killed.
Pro-Trump protesters clash with police as they contest the result of the 2020 election
Trump supporters at the door to the Senate chamber on January 6
Meanwhile, the online conspiracy theories spread. How had the Secret Service let the assassin — identified by the FBI as Thomas Matthew Crooks — get so close? Why did snipers wait so long to pull the trigger?
Footage of Secret Service agents ‘acting strangely’ circulated. Photographs, possibly doctored, showed a ‘second shooter’ on a water tower.
‘Use your eyes, people,’ wrote Matt Gaetz, the Republican Florida Congressman, on social media. ‘This is what the Deep State always wanted!’ Television host Alex Jones went further on his Infowars channel: ‘Satan himself has taken over the United States of America!’
On Sunday afternoon, the real rage began. Trucks festooned in ‘Trump 2024’ flags drove into New York. Near Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, a gunfight broke out. Some 30 people were shot dead, many more injured. Similar battles broke out in Detroit, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
In Washington DC, a 200-strong ‘patriot militia’ attempted what its members called ‘The Second Storming’ of Capitol Hill. The attack was repelled but the violence took another 22 lives.
Nearby, on Pennsylvania Avenue, a gang of far-Right ‘Proud Boys’ with baseball bats beat a Democratic Congressman to death. The White House press office called him a ‘martyr for democracy’. ‘THE DONALD IS DEAD!’ screamed the front page of the New York Post. ‘Events beget events,’ opined an editorial in the Washington Post.
By Monday morning, President Biden called a national emergency and ordered the National Guard to restore order. But the guard’s chief, General Daniel R. Hokanson, informed him the violence was too widespread. ‘America is on fire, Mr President,’ he said. ‘We can’t put it out.’
The mood calmed on Tuesday as Trump’s coffin, draped in the national flag, arrived in the nation’s capital. As is custom, the closed casket was lain in state in the Capitol Rotunda.
Dignitaries made way as Melania Trump and her late husband’s children — Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka, Tiffany and Barron — traipsed through Congress to honour the deceased. Don Jr then flew to the Republican National Convention, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to give one of the opening addresses.
‘Everybody said we should cancel,’ he said. ‘But as my father said: ‘They’re not after me, they’re after you. I am just standing in the way.’ Now he’s gone. It falls to us to fight for him.’
He received a standing ovation.
Don Jr also announced that his father had picked JD Vance, the Ohio Senator, as his vice-presidential nominee. ‘His choice ought to be honoured,’ he said.
‘JD will lead our fight.’
Twenty minutes later, however, Michael Whatley, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee, declared that the RNC did not endorse Vance.
Fights broke out on the floor of the Convention centre. Delegates were removed from the building.
‘The Deep State is trying to hijack our party,’ Republican. Matt Gaetz told Fox News.
The RNC then issued a statement announcing that Nikki Haley would be the nominee.
On Wednesday, JD Vance was murdered. An Antifa activist known as ‘Red Head’ shot him with a crossbow as he took his family to Mass in Middletown, Ohio. Vance only had two Secret Service agents protecting him. The agents shot Red Head 12 times. He died instantly. ‘They are executing anyone who wants to Make America Great Again,’ wrote Don Jr on social media. ‘Take our country back NOW.’
Meanwhile, members of an evangelical congregation in Dallas County, Texas, claimed that, on the third day after his death, a resurrected Donald Trump had appeared before them. ‘He came to me and said: ‘We must fight! Fight for Jesus!’ ‘ said one elderly lady with sunglasses and a Make America Great Again baseball cap.
At the same time, Donald Trump’s Truth Social media account began posting again. First came an image of Trump with a halo above the words: ‘Where we go, one we go all’ — a favourite slogan of ‘QAnon’ conspiracy theorists. Then came an image of Lazarus, the Biblical figure who rose from the dead.
In Washington, insiders whispered that 81-year-old President Biden, who was suffering from Covid, might be stepping down.
‘He was staying in because only he could defeat Trump,’ said one Democratic source. ‘Now that’s not an issue.’
On July 19, Biden declared in a video that he would be resigning as Commander-in-Chief, effective immediately. He endorsed his vice-president Kamala Harris.
Having been sworn in at the White House, Harris gave an address outside. ‘I hear talk about the Deep State,’ she said. ‘But I think we need a deeper state. A state that loves more deeply and cares more deeply.’
Online broadcaster Tucker Carlson called her remarks ‘the weirdest speech in history’.
On Monday, July 22, a horse-drawn caisson — a military wagon — transported Trump’s body to Washington National Cathedral for the State Funeral. Wearing dark glasses, Melania Trump refused to acknowledge the Harris and Biden families as she walked with her teenage son Barron to the front. King Charles sat awkwardly close to a visibly emotional Nigel Farage.
Eric and Ivanka Trump gave tearful eulogies. Tiffany read lyrics to The Snake by Oscar Brown, one of her father’s favourite ballads, which includes the line: ‘Oh shut up silly woman, said the reptile with a grin. You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in.’
The vast crowds remained peaceful throughout the day. That night, however, more street fights broke out across the capital between Trump fans and Left-wing activists. At least 15 people died in the violence.
On July 28 came a shocking new development. Vivek Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential hopeful, announced he would stand as the candidate of a ‘Trump Party’ in 2024. ‘Our Republic needs saving,’ he declared. ‘And we’ll do that by whatever means necessary.’ His campaign raised $150 million in 48 hours. Trump’s Truth Social account posted another picture: a Christ-like Donald with his hand on Ramaswamy’s shoulder.
Then, on August 4, a car bomb went off outside Nikki Haley’s mansion in South Carolina. Neither Haley nor her family were harmed.
‘Donald Trump would be ashamed,’ she said, visibly shaken. ‘I will not give in to this violence.’ She resigned her candidacy the following day.
Two days later, Ramaswamy, flanked by two Proud Boys carrying AR-556s, declared himself the presumptive Republican nominee. ‘If we can’t take this country back democratically, we’ll have to find another way,’ he said.
The following day, several ‘Patriot Army’ brigades surrounded Republican Party offices in Texas, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. ‘UNCIVIL WAR,’ shouted the front page of USA Today.
Six months passed. On January 20, 2025, President Ramaswamy delivered his inaugural address from the West Front of the Capitol building. ‘To bring this country together,’ he said, ‘we must destroy our enemies.’
All the way down the National Mall, the MAGA army cheered . . .
