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Why did the Bayesian capsize? Prosecutors to probe keel of £30m superyacht and speak to boat’s designer as unearthed clip from 2019 tornado shows what SHOULD happen in stormy conditions


Italian prosecutors will analyse the keel of the capsized £30million superyacht and speak to its designers as an investigation gets underway.

This morning five bodies recovered from the wreck of the doomed vessel were identified, including the ship’s owner British tech tycoon Mike Lynch.

The search is continuing for one person who is still missing, believed to be 18-year-old student Hannah Lynch.

Twenty two people, comprising 12 guests and 10 crew members, were on the luxury boat when it was hit by a ‘black swan’ waterspout and sank off the coast of Italy just before 5am on Monday. 

Fifteen of the 22 people who were on board managed to escape and make it onto a life raft.

However six people, Mr Lynch, his daughter Hannah, Morgan Stanley International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy and Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda remained unaccounted for.

The body of the boat’s chef Recaldo Thomas, was found shortly after the boat sank on Monday.

It comes as:

Why did the Bayesian capsize? Prosecutors to probe keel of £30m superyacht and speak to boat’s designer as unearthed clip from 2019 tornado shows what SHOULD happen in stormy conditions

The Bayesian (pictured) overturned during a severe thunderstorm on Monday morning

The CCTV footage shows a tornado pushing a large superyacht with a similar mast style to the Bayesian onto its side

The CCTV footage shows a tornado pushing a large superyacht with a similar mast style to the Bayesian onto its side

But rather than capsizing, the mast quickly flips straight back up to its upright position

But rather than capsizing, the mast quickly flips straight back up to its upright position

It comes as prosecutors are set to investigate the ship’s keel, which was partially elevated at the time of the storm.

The keel, which extends like a giant fin underneath the boat and acts as a counterweight to the tall mast, was not fully down despite poor weather being forecast hours ago. 

Experts told the Mail that it is fairly standard for the keel not to be fully lowered while a ship is at anchor, but with storms forecast and portholes reportedly left open, it raises questions over the cause of the tragedy.

And amid reports prosecutors are seeking to speak with the ships’ designers – after captain James Catfield was questioned for two hours on Wednesday – the company which manufactured the boat has now claimed human error was to blame.

It comes as an unearthed video from Auckland, New Zealand, showed what should happen if a ship such as the Bayesian overturns in stormy weather. 

The CCTV footage shows a tornado pushing a large superyacht with a similar mast style to the Bayesian onto its side. 

But rather than capsizing, the mast quickly flips straight back up to its upright position, reports the Mail’s Robert Hardman

It has not been confirmed yet if the bodies recovered yesterday are that of Mr Lynch or his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, although reports in Italian media suggested the pair had been found in the same cabin trapped between two mattresses. 

The body of the yacht’s chef Recaldo Thomas was found shortly after the tragedy. 

Amid increasing questions as to how such a robust ship, which had previously sailed in Antarctica and was described as ‘bulletbroof’, could have sank Giovanni Costantino, CEO of Italian Sea Group, has spoken out on the tragedy.

ISG bought the Bayesian’s constructors Perini Navi two years ago. Mr Costantino said: ‘This was human error, the yacht sank because it took on water. From where exactly the investigators will tell us. The dynamic of the sinking is seen and read from AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and lasted sixteen minutes.

‘We have given this data to the prosecutors at Termini Immerse. From the images it looks as if the yacht had been taking on water for four minutes. 

‘All it took was another gust of wind to turn her over, that meant more water coming in. She then straightened very briefly before going down.’

British tech tycoon Mike Lynch with his wife Angela Bacares, who survived the disaster

British tech tycoon Mike Lynch with his wife Angela Bacares, who survived the disaster

The superyacht (pictured left) was docked off the coast of Porticello, near Palermo, when it was hit by an over-sea tornado, known as a waterspout

The superyacht (pictured left) was docked off the coast of Porticello, near Palermo, when it was hit by an over-sea tornado, known as a waterspout 

Search efforts are back underway this morning to find Hannah Lynch, after five bodies were recovered from the wreckage

Search efforts are back underway this morning to find Hannah Lynch, after five bodies were recovered from the wreckage

Earlier a spokesman for the company told MailOnline ‘procedures were not followed’ on the luxury vessel and the sinking was down to ‘portholes being left open despite bad weather being forecast hours earlier’.

A spokesperson said: ‘The Bayesian was built to a very high standards and it would not have sunk if proper procedures had been followed by the crew.

‘A storm had been forecast earlier, no fishing boats went out and yet the portholes were not shut, the yacht sank because it was engulfed by a massive amount of water through open portholes.’

The spokesperson added: ‘The Bayesian would have remained afloat in any weather, even if it was being swung from left to right in gale force winds but it could never have remained in the water with open port holes.

‘The design made the yacht extremely sturdy, but it couldn’t stay up because there had been a huge intake of water though open portholes.

‘The yacht was built to withstand whatever the conditions were. The mast has nothing to do with what happened, it was built that way when it was launched and it had a refit in 2020 in Spain, the yacht sank because procedures in bad weather were not followed.’

The Bayesian was 56m long, had a 74m mast and was built in 2008 with David Hutchinson, captain of its sister ship Rosehearty, telling Boat International ‘she was bulletproof’.

He told the specialist publication: ‘We’ve been to Antarctica and Chile, and we’ve had her in 70knots of wind ‘ but they had never been put in a situation that he felt was unmanageable.

The Bayesian went down in a matter of minutes after being struck by the tornado while anchored off the coast at Porticello, near Palermo Sicily on Monday.

Bayesian’s captain James Cutfield, 51, survived and is currently in hospital.

Prosecutors are looking into the theory that the yacht’s portholes and hatches were not closed in time ahead of the storm, despite bad weather being forecast, and if any of the crew are liable.

Italian Sea Group completed the buyout of Perini Navi for 80 million Euros in 2022 and a press release at the time said they were ‘extremely satisfied’ with the purchase complementing its ‘expertise in the sailing yacht sector’.

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